I like big hits as much as anyone, but we all know that softball is all about pitching. And when it comes the playoffs, we see the same story over and over again—one pitcher puts the team on her back, pitches the vast majority of the playoff innings, becomes absolutely dominant, and carries her team to the national title.
And by looking at playoff pitching stats of the top pitcher on the last 5 national championship winners, we can put numbers to just how dominant a pitcher needs to be to win it all. To help analyze this, I am looking at two statistics in particular—strike outs per inning and Earned Run Average or “ERA.” The average strike outs per inning of the top pitcher on the last 5 national championship teams is 1.04—or just over 1 strike out per inning. And the average ERA of the top pitcher on the last 5 national championship teams is 0.902.
So that begs the question—which teams among the top 10 ranked teams right now, have pitchers that are playing at that championship level? And then, presumably, actually have the pitching needed to win the national title this year?
I’m happy you asked!
Right now, there are only 2 pitchers pitching at or better than the championship level of the last 5 WCWS winners—and they both play on the same team: Tennessee
Tennessee’s Karlyn Pickens is at 1.39 strike outs per inning and 0.65 ERA. And Tennessee’s Sage Mardjetko is at 1.33 strike outs per inning and 0.83 ERA.
And. Shockingly. The next closest also plays for Tennessee Erin Nuwer is over the strike out number but just higher than the ERA number by 9 hundredths of a decimal place.
So Tennessee is my overwhelming favorite to win it all this year because they are the only team with any pitcher exceeding the championship stats of the last 5 winners—and they have two! And almost have 3!
The next two closest pitchers to the championship level set over the last 5 years both play for….Alabama! Currently ranked #6 in the polls.
Alabama’s Vic Moten is above the mark with 1.23 strike outs per inning and just below the ERA mark with a 1.16 ERA. Jocelyn Briski is also above the strike out number at 1.161 per inning and just below the ERA number with 1.16.
And finally, not much of a surprise, the last person to mention who is close to pitching at a championship level is NiJaree Canady, currently above the strike out mark with 1.38 strike outs per inning and just below the ERA mark with a 1.27.
Only 3 teams in the top 10 that do not have a pitcher that meets either strike out per inning or ERA number, and it’s 3 blue bloods: Oklahoma, UCLA, and Florida State. They are on my national title PRETENDER list.
Now anything can happen in the playoffs, but as of right now, Tennessee is by far my national title favorite because they have at least 2 pitchers pitching at a championship level. But Alabama and Texas Tech, according to the numbers, are also right in the mix and are certified Softball Channel Contenders.
